Holyrood Nowcast
SNP
58▼ 6
CONST
57(34.7%)
REGIONAL
1(28.7%)
RFM
22▲ 22
CONST
8(19.9%)
REGIONAL
14(18.8%)
LAB
17▼ 5
CONST
2(16.1%)
REGIONAL
15(16.1%)
CON
12▼ 19
CONST
1(11.0%)
REGIONAL
11(11.0%)
LDM
10▲ 6
CONST
5(9.5%)
REGIONAL
5(9.5%)
GRN
10▲ 2
CONST
0(8.1%)
REGIONAL
10(12.6%)
ALBA
0▬ 0
CONST
0(0.7%)
REGIONAL
0(2.4%)
Constituency
Regional
Holyrood Polling Average
Methodology
1. Accuracy Weighting 🎯
Every pollster is assigned a score derived from their historic accuracy. Firms with a proven track record of proximity to actual election results exert more influence on the trendline.
2. Frequency Balancing ⚖️
To prevent high-volume pollsters from skewing the average, weights are adjusted for frequency. Multiple polls within a 10-day window have their influence distributed.
3. Bisquare Smoothing 📉
A robust regression model handles statistical noise by measuring how far a poll deviates from the trendline. Outliers receive less weight.